Every year right about this time, the “s” word begins creeping into the conversation, that being the question of whether or not, or when, it will snow in and around our little corner of the world. Grown-ups grumble, kids can only hope.
With little or no snow for the past couple of years, it seemed a sure bet the peninsula was in for a covering of the white stuff. And so it was. Last week, weather forecasts teased a snow event for days at a time, and by Friday, the conditions proved right for snowflakes. In Port Angeles, that is. Much to the dismay of Sequim students, the snow bypassed the city. Sorry kids.
You can blame it on what we around these parts call the blue hole.
I admit I had never heard of the blue hole concept until I moved to Sequim. The blue hole, I quickly learned, defined Sequim as a pleasant place to live in that somehow the sun shone nearly every day, whether for a minute, an hour or an entire day. For a time I thought it to be a tactic concocted by city officials to entice folks to relocate to “sunny Sequim.”
Because there aren’t many meteorologists in the area, I contacted KOMO news and flooded the meteorologists with questions. Scott Sistek, a KOMO News meteorologist, was kind enough to explain some of the unusual weather on the North Olympic Peninsula, specifically, Port Angeles, Sequim and Port Townsend.
Sistek is originally from Port Angeles, so he knows the area well. He admits to being a weather geek since about age 7 when he went through a major windstorm on the southern Oregon Coast.
“I really got into weather during a childhood stop away from the West Coast, which was a 3-year stint in North Carolina,” Sistek said of his interest in weather. “I’d watch the weather every night to learn where the thunderstorms were,” and the weather interest blossomed from there.
After his family returned to the Pacific Northwest, he attended the University of Washington and graduated with a degree in atmospheric sciences. He started at KOMO two days later as Steve Pool’s weather producer. He has been working at KOMO for nearly 20 years, currently as the station’s web meteorologist.
The blue hole — or what meteorologists call the Olympic Rain Shadow — is created when our storms come in off the ocean, typically from the southwest. As the moisture comes in, it slams into the southwestern side of the Olympic Mountains. As air rises, it cools and condenses, squeezing out much of its moisture as rain (and at higher elevations, snow) on that side of the mountains.
“That’s why there’s a huge rain forest there, since that area gets roughly 200 inches of rain a year,” Sistek said.
Once the that air makes it over the Olympic Mountains, it begins to sink down the northern side. Sinking air has the opposite effect; in other words, it gets warmer and drier. The trajectory usually puts that drying effect right over Sequim, with its edges reaching Port Townsend and the eastern fringe of Port Angeles.
That’s why, in general, Sequim gets only about 18 inches of rain a year while Port Angeles gets closer to 25 inches. Seattle, for comparison, gets around 37 inches.
Towns on the west and southwest slopes of the Olympic Mountains bear the brunt of the precipitation. The average yearly rainfall in Forks, for example, is 120 inches. Neah Bay sees 97 inches, Hoquiam, 116 inches and the Olympic National Park Hoh Visitor Center gets between 144-170 inches.
So why the difference in snowfall last week?
“The reason (Sequim) missed the snow last week wasn’t due to the blue hole,” Sistek said. “It was actually an opposite deal.”
Last week, Sistek went on to say, was different. There was a very cold wind coming out of the northeast from the Fraser River Valley near Bellingham. As that air blows toward the southwest, it crosses the Strait and slams into the northern side of the Olympic Mountains.
Again, air rises up the Olympics, cools and condenses and wrings out — in this case, snow — and also in this case, it’s on the northern side of the Olympics instead of the southern side.
Many times this effect hits Port Angeles the hardest but will stretch east toward Sequim on many occasions. This time, however, the path of the wind was such that it aimed more at Port Angeles and less at Sequim.
“This also tends to make it snow more on the south side of Highway 101 than the north side toward the water because the closer you are to the mountains, the closer you are to this ‘snow engine,’” Sistek explained.
Sistek said last Friday there was hardly any snow near the water and bluffs in Port Angeles, but eight or so blocks away there were 2-4 inches of snow.
“As you get into those foothill communities of PA and Sequim farther south closer to the mountains, they can frequently get several inches of snow that the main downtown areas miss.”
A complex explanation, Sistek admits, but, he adds, weather is extremely difficult to predict around the Pacific Northwest with the ocean, straits, mountains and Puget Sound just within a few hundred miles of each other.
“Look no further for proof at how that one snow event played out so differently over just a few miles last week,” he said. “And for us in particular, imagine trying to predict those nuances over half a state.”
Predicting the weather
Sistek is the first to admit predicting the weather is an inexact science and always a challenge, “but a lot of fun to try to solve Mother Nature’s puzzles at the same time.”
Indeed, weather is a popular topic of conversation. Friends greet one another with comments such as, “Nice day, isn’t it,” or, “Will this rain ever stop?” The meteorologist gets blamed for ruined barbecues, weddings, outdoor family gatherings, hikes and the like. We find ourselves checking weather forecasts more often than not when planning events. Weather forecasting involves a combination of computer models, observations and a knowledge of trends and patterns. By using these methods, reasonable accurate forecasts can be made up to seven days in advance.
Today’s meteorologists use state-of-the-art technology and techniques, such as numerical forecasting, which uses mathematical equations to predict the weather. Sensors and gauges, such as wind gauges, rain collector and temperature sensors, produce more than 1 million weather-related observations every day to meteorologists. They rely on supercomputers, which are housed at the National Centers for Environment Prediction, located in Camp Springs, Md. The computer’s output forms the basis of almost every forecast broadcast on radio and television channels throughout the United States.
Doppler radar also is used to monitor weather conditions and improve forecasts. Doppler radar requires a transmitter to emit radio waves in the sky, which in turn strike atmospheric objects and bounce back. A computer in the radar converts data about the reflected radio waves into pictures showing cloud coverage and bands of precipitation, as well as wind speeds and direction.
Because of all this technology, meteorologists can predict the weather better than ever.
However, they will never be able to predict the weather with absolute certainty, which is how surprise storms continue to devastate communities with little warning.
Don’t blame the weather person when the sunny day you expected turns into a rainy one. Perhaps best to always carry an umbrella.
What does it all mean?
Before irrigation in Sequim, much of the area was an open oak-studded prairie. Now, agriculture is one of the major industries in the area.
Come summer, there is an abundance of organic fruits and vegetables grown in and around Sequim and Port Townsend.
Paul Jendrucko, lavender grower and owner of Sequim Lavender Company, believes the climate on the North Olympic Peninsula is conducive to exceptional agricultural products.
Jendrucko, aka Dr. Lavender, and his wife Mary, have been a part of the Sequim Lavender Festival since 1999.
“We live in a special climate, a semi-Mediterranean climate,” Jendrucko said. “Our winters are mild and the summers fairly dry, which makes for good lavender and produce.”
Sid Maroney, sales manager at Nash’s Organic Produce, agrees.
“We are at sea level, have no hard freezes and are able to have enough snow pack for the irrigation,” he said. “It’s not too hot and not too cold.”
Nash Huber, owner of Nash’s Organic Produce and Nash Farms, is well-known, not only in Sequim and its environs, but throughout the Pacific Northwest, for his organic vegetables, especially the carrots he cultivates.
While the weather can certainly be a complicated topic, one thing most of us who live on the North Olympic Peninsula can agree to is that overall this is a pretty good place to lay down roots. Some even go so far as to call it paradise.
The next time you happen to be watching weather clips from the Midwest or Northeast, showing snow piles as tall as the cars and cars all smashed into one another on icy highways, or sticky summer heat hot enough to fry eggs on sidewalks, take out a light jacket and enjoy a walk in a city where snow is an event, not an everyday-in-the-winter occurrence and the summer warmth is breezy and bearable.
Mary Powell is a freelance writer and former editor of the Sequim Gazette.
