The tyranny of certainty, Part I

I sure hope the predictions are right that COVID-19 and all its relatives will move on from being an epidemic to being endemic or always present in the environment in a way we can live with it. At this writing, our county is still in the orange zone which is the worst color to be in ranking the prevalence of infection.

But our health officer believes that the infection trendline will continue down and restrictions will be eased as we turn yellow, then green.

We have experienced a long two years of cycling between variants. Public health officials tell us we are achieving a sufficient balance of immunity through vaccinations and natural infections that most infections, will be mild and those requiring hospitalization will be manageable instead of overwhelming the health care system.

I’m going with the flow and hope we don’t have another aggressive variant. At least we know what to do if that happens and some of us will do it.

At least relieved for the moment by a cogent plan, I’m turning my attention to a question I’ve had since the beginning of the pandemic: How did the pandemic cause millions of Americans to reject science and develop unquestioned loyalty to one notably unreliable person supported by conspiracy theory carpetbaggers?

The COVID-19 pandemic proved fertile ground for escalating the political divisions of our country into what could cause irreparable harm if we don’t seek understanding and a way to come together in our democracy.

Nothing new under the sun

In 1600, Giordano Bruno (1548-1600) was burned at the stake for theorizing stars were suns with planets revolving around them. His theories were based on his cosmological studies. He was also a philosopher who came to believe in reincarnation of the soul. (Wikipedia)

That our Earth was among the rotating planets instead of the center of the universe did not go over well with the Roman Catholic Church of the day. Bruno became the subject of the Roman inquisition for his contrary views of the Catholic doctrine and was found guilty of heresy.

Galileo Galilei (1564-1642), philosopher, astronomer and mathematician, has more name familiarity than Bruno. He is recognized for his contributions to the sciences of motion and astronomy, and to the development of the scientific method. (Britannica)

Galileo, most likely aided by his own work on the telescope and his study of motion, came to believe the Copernican theory which defined the sun as the center of the universe and the Earth a mere planet revolving around it.

Again, Rome was unhappy with the theory and declared it heretical. Any writings otherwise were banned and Galileo was called before the inquisition. He was ordered not to “defend” the Copernican theory. (Circa 1615)

Galileo mellowed his approach but continued to study, and wrote about a hypothetical Copernican theory in a book put out in 1632, a writing that immediately got the attention of Rome, and he was called before the inquisition. He was found guilty of heresy — or suspicion of — and sentenced to life in prison. It’s reported he lived in relative comfort and continued to study until his death.

Fast forward to today, we don’t have one ruling body determining acts of heresy or the draconian burning stake. Someone who studies the time of Bruno and Galileo may know if there were protests outside the church door over the fate of these two scientists and thinkers but somehow I doubt it given the certain fate of someone who publicly denied doctrine.

The debate over science and doctrine today can be political, religious, both, or various conspiracy theories or all of the above. The complex nature of the debate makes it more difficult to sort through and at the same time makes it more important to understand. How can we restore our civility if we don’t come to understand our common humanity?

Certainty’s role in human motivation

Most of us can relate to the desire to have certainty in life. Abraham Maslow lists security and safety between physiological needs (air, water, etc.) and social connection (belonging, companionship, love) in his theory of hierarchy of human need (a theory of human motivation 1943). Security and safety are knowing our basic needs will be met; that we will have food and shelter for days to come. We humans will act if our safety is in jeopardy.

Think the hoarding of toilet paper and sanitizer during the first months of the pandemic. Think the people of Ukraine who are suddenly thrust into war on their country and have lost every part of their security.

Think of the things we need to feel psychologically and physically safe.

And what we will do to remain safe.

Or what we will do to risk our safety.

The people of 16th and 17th century Rome felt safe in their view of life on Earth and in the hereafter. Science threatened the certainty of religious doctrine.

The futures of the church and the people were at serious risk for upheaval if any of the science caught hold in a way that undermined the certainty of doctrine. The obvious solution chosen was to crush the science by crushing the scientists.

The pandemic thrust many of us suddenly and without recourse back into the quest for psychological and physical safety. Others, already struggling to find their safe, secure spot were thrust even further back.

In the end or at the beginning, we all retreated to Maslow’s first level of meeting basic needs and striving for security and safety. Part of safety involved social distancing, in some cases, isolation which removed us from each other.

We formed bubbles of safety from the disease but also bubbles that put us with like-minded people and websites.

We regained stability and certainty but at the cost of trusting anything outside our bubble.

Science became a divider either as a liberator or tyrant. It certainty remains a necessity.

Next column: How science and certainty reward and fail us and overcoming our divided humanity. Can we have both?

Bertha Cooper, a featured columnist in the Sequim Gazette, spent her career years in health care administration, program development and consultation and it the author of the award-winning “Women, We’re Only Old Once.” Cooper and her husband have lived in Sequim more than 20 years. Reach her at columnists@sequimgazette.com.